"You throw the ball; you catch the ball..."

Well, the Detroit Tigers are about to start the second half of the season—figuratively, at least—tomorrow.

They go into the series at Baltimore at a disappointing 44-42, in third place, 3.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox and half a game behind the Cleveland Indians—and it took a five-game winning streak against two weaker teams to get there. Eighty-six games into the season, and we still don't know entirely what they are capable of or how this season will end up. All we know for sure is that the race to win this division will be a lot closer than most people predicted.

I'm disappointed in the way things have gone so far, but I'm not entirely surprised. I was in the minority of people who didn't think the Tigers got any better when they signed Prince Fielder to replace the injured Victor Martinez. Even if things had gone the way that everybody expected—that is, that the Tigers would simply pound other clubs into submission—I still didn't think they'd win as many games as they won last year. It's not easy to win 95 games. This is (in brief) why I thought they'd stumble:

The pitching

I had serious concerns about Justin Verlander going into this season. He pitched a ton of innings last year, in the regular season and the playoffs. I thought he would take a step back, in part because of the lack of defense (which I'll get to in a bit) behind him and in part because his arm would show some signs of fatigue. Verlander, by the way, has surprised me. He's had a couple shaky outings, but he's been as good as last year and, with five complete games in the book already, will at least be in the Cy Young discussion at the end of the season.

The bullpen couldn't realistically be as good as it was last year, when the Tigers were undefeated when they had the lead in the 7th inning. Jose Valverde, a big reason for that, didn't blow a save all season and that kind of success is virtually impossible in today's game. On his own, he'd account for a few more losses this year.

The defense

When the season started, we were looking at the prospect of a sub-standard fielding first baseman, third baseman and second baseman combined with a short stop with limited range. Centerfield and, perhaps, catcher were the only bright spots on the field. I've always appreciated speed and defense in baseball, so I wasn't expecting to like to watch this team too much, at all.

There have been surprises here, as well. Notably Miguel Cabrera, who hasn't been anywhere near as bad at third as people thought he would be.

The hitting

Yeah, I still had concerns about the lineup. I didn't think Martinez could be replaced—I didn't think even he could duplicate his rare ability to get clutch hits last year. The 2011 season was the last time I could remember feeling confident when the Tigers had runners in scoring position with two outs. V-Mart was outstanding in those situations.

Sure, I figured Fielder would hit. I knew Cabrera would hit. I hoped Austin Jackson would find a groove somewhere between his rookie season and last year. I thought Brennan Boesch, too, would settle in and be more consistent; I thought they were both good for a .280 average with occasional extra base power. I didn't expect Johnny Peralta to duplicate his 2011 season at the plate, nor Delmon Young to continue to hit for average and power.

Some of those fears and concerns have played out, and some have been proved unfounded. Where does that leave us?

I don't know. Hopeful, for sure. Optimistic? Maybe. The Tigers are facing a deficit that is not overwhelming, by any means. Many teams have overcome a larger deficit in a shorter period of time, but those teams have also had the good fortune to have the teams they were chasing stumble a bit, too. The White Sox look like they are coming together, too, and they had the advantage at this point.

The Tigers have the potential to make a run and win the division, but they have no room left for error. Thirteen of their next 14 opponents have a record of .500 or better and the Tigers essentially need to win each of those series to earn their second consecutive division crown. They have to be consistent, and they've shown an inability to do that thus far. They have the best pitcher in baseball in Verlander, one of the best hitters in the game in Cabrera and, while I hope I'm wrong, I don't think this is their year.